Pandemic Seattle: can downtown survive and build back better?
Six months in, COVID-19 has ravaged vulnerable populations, industries and geographic regions, especially urban centers. As the hub of a science-based region, Seattle has fared better than many but for downtown’s estimated 96,000 residents, life as we know it has changed.
The landscape has shifted with 70% of the city center’s 330,000 workforce telecommuting or out of work. Boarded retail stores and restaurants line the streets.
In the past two months, civic and business groups like the Puget Sound Business Journal, Downtown Seattle Association and Schwabe, Williamson & Wyatt have gone online with webinars featuring pandemic-related insights of experts in public health, business and real estate.
Their take-aways offer clues and predictions for what to expect as downtown navigates the unknown and seeks to build back better:
Prepare for the long haul. King County public and private health professionals say even after vaccines hit the market, their widespread distribution and efficacy will determine when we return to normal. They expect face coverings and social distancing will remain for 2 years.
The local economy will rise and fall with virus metrics. Pay attention to COVID data. Until the it’s under control and people feel safe, the economy won’t fully return. Seattle relies on travel and tourism. Currently downtown hotel occupancy is 16.5% when it should be at 70%. It could take 5 years to return to 2019 levels.
Telecommuting is here to stay but office culture will return. Big tech has embraced telecommuting for now but many non-tech offices have integrated 2-days in the office for conferences and training. Real estate professionals think when it’s safe, large numbers will return to offices to make connections, spark ideas and facilitate productivity and decision-making.
Ground floor retail space will shift from a real estate profit center to an amenity. COVID hastened the previous trend of shrinking G/F retail and restaurants. Ideas to revamp these spaces include lowering rents, creating common space and entering into partnerships with arts organizations and ventures with BIPOC entrepreneurs.
Transportation patterns are shifting. Apple mobility shows Seattle transit ridership down 61%, car use up by 42% and walking up 15%. Pre-virus, online shopping was 10% of retail, now it’s 25%. Expect a shift in streetscapes to include more room for pick-ups and deliveries and space for pedestrians and outdoor dining.
Will there be urban migration? Downtown commercial real estate is considered stable because 34% is owned or leased by the five largest tech companies and there’s still interest from international investors. One real estate professional admitted, “Walking around downtown Seattle doesn’t feel great,” adding that issues of disparity and race need to be addressed. Another said downtown Seattle has yet to see the exodus experienced in the Bay area and Manhattan. He said affordability is Seattle’s biggest issue.
As one panelist concluded, “For thousands of years cities have felt the impact of social upheaval but they always come back. It will take time, but Seattle will revive.”
To see it come back sooner and in a way that supports downtown residents, DRA wants to hear from you.. Seattle leaders are deciding soon how to move forward to manage the pandemic, protests and racial equity. Use this link to send your ideas and actions to help downtown build back better. We’ll publish answers in an upcoming post.
